Vignesh Gopakumar
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Both transport ensembles pass the monotonicity proof

built
measured
Published

October 25, 2026

new component measurement Entry 74 · milestone M4

The transport networks now have a proof of an imposed response: increasing the paired temperature gradient cannot reduce the predicted heat flux when the other network inputs stay fixed (all 20 members of each ensemble pass both heat-flux monotonicity properties, with derivative lower bound zero over the full training boxC-247). This is a statement about the networks. It does not establish that they reproduce the underlying physics where TGLF itself is non-monotone.

The checks take two routes. The first inspects the saved weights and confirms that every path from the selected gradient to its heat-flux output has non-negative gain. The second asks the bound-propagation library to bound the derivative. Each activation slope stays between zero and one; letting those slopes vary independently gives a larger domain that contains every state reachable within the training box. Both routes agree.

Before proving each member, its exported predictions and derivative calculation are checked against the JAX model on random-box and held-out inputs. The certificates bind the model, box, property, verifier source and numerical results. A negative-path regression checks that a deliberately decreasing derivative is detected.

The proof belongs to the saved model and its declared property. The deployed model and guard are unchanged, and the MAST-U reference limitation remains. The owner’s final M4 certification review is still ahead.

What’s next

V5 will bound the outputs of transport, EC and pedestal models. Those bounds, calibration, remaining coupled checks and guard integration are needed before the certification review.

Technical details → Verification › transport monotonicity
Decisions → OQ-20 · OQ-22 · OQ-24 · OQ-26 · OQ-42

© Copyright 2026 Vignesh Gopakumar

 
 
Code and first draft by Claude (Anthropic) and Codex, working to a brief by Vignesh Gopakumar, who reviewed and approved this page. How this is built · Tokamak Toolkit home